Gold’s 30% Drop Matches 2008, but a Bottom Is Near | Tavi Costa

Taken as one sector, gold miners would have the cleanest balance sheets in the stock market, says Tavi Costa, yet mining makes up less than 1% of it. The founder and CEO of Azuria Capital calls this pullback “one of the most compelling windows of opportunities” he has seen this cycle, and with gold down about 30% by his count, he thinks “we’re closer to the bottom.”

Speaking with Kitco News anchor Jeremy Szafron at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Costa points to free cash flow yields near 10% and bank models that still value the miners on $3,000 to $3,500 gold. Plug in a higher long-term price, he argues, and the whole industry gets re-rated. He is especially drawn to silver miners, some holding 10% to 15% of their market cap in cash, and he sees resources as the new moat in a world AI can disrupt, calling mining “the best AI trade.”

Costa also sees AI spending as a wartime race with China, expects a 2000-style rotation out of tech, and says the Fed will probably have to lower rates again once higher borrowing costs start causing problems. He explains how gold could reach multiples of today’s price if Treasuries were ever backed by gold at past levels, and he warns sound m…