Ted Oakley: This Cycle Is Ending, I’m 50% in Cash and Treasuries

Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors expects interest rate cuts by mid-2027 as the economy slows, and says gold will like that. But after gold jumped more than $100 on the midterm vote, he's cutting gold miners, he's out of silver, he's selling Google and Microsoft, and he's holding about half his clients' money in cash and Treasuries.

Oakley, who has managed money through every cycle since the 1970s, says we're at the end of this cycle and expects weakness for most of 2027. He explains why the "just buy the S&P 500" approach is coming to an end, why commodities are signaling a slowdown, why he sold 20% of his top energy winners, and why he's moving that money into 3- to 5-year Treasuries.

He also lays out how he'd invest $1 million in cash right now, why he says the US can't pay off its $40 trillion debt, and the biggest mistake he sees investors over 65 making. His new book with Chance Finucane, Asleep at the Wheel, is due out in early January.

Recorded November 4 2026